New Zealand Crime Trends 2025 Are We Safer Heading Into 2026?

As we enter February, we’ve taken the opportunity to review how New Zealand performed in terms of crime over 2025 and to consider what this may mean for 2026.

Before we begin, we want to emphasise the following point.

We understand that statistics can seem distant when you’ve been directly impacted by crime. No number can truly encapsulate the fear, loss, and upheaval experienced by victims. Our aim in sharing this data is not to diminish these experiences but to shed light on broader trends. Every crime is a personal tragedy, and we at Xpanda Security and DIY Xpanda remain committed to working towards a safer New Zealand where everyone feels secure in their homes and communities. It's encouraging to see a decline in certain crime categories, but we recognize that there is still much work to be done.

 

<Index>

1. 📊 Data Source & Methodology
2. 📉 Overall Crime Trends by Police District
3. 📌Violent Crime Trends
4. 📆 Burglary Trends by Area
5. 🗺️ Long-Term Crime Trends (2014–2025): A Decade of Crime in NZ
6. 🛡️What These Trends Mean for  2026 and Why Prevention Still Matters
   

    

 

1. Data Source & Methodology

Using official police data from policedata.nz, we analysed overall crime and violent crime, and burglary-related offences, as invasion prevention is the core area we specialise in preventing.

⚠️ Important note: Police data for December 2025 has not yet been released. As a result, the 2025 figures and analysis below are tentative. Once the full dataset becomes available, we will publish an updated review.

We also use locations according to NZ police district definitions. For a more detailed breakdown of New Zealand police districts, including boundaries and official structure, please visit here.

 

2. Overall Crime Trends by Police District

Comparing the 12-month periods Dec 2023 – Nov 2024 and Dec 2024 – Nov 2025, total recorded crime across New Zealand decreased by 4.8%, from 380,944 cases to 362,771 cases.

Key observations:

• 🏙️ Auckland City recorded a substantial 14.8% decrease, despite remaining the country’s largest crime hub by volume.

• 📉 Counties/Manukau (-9.4%) and Eastern (-10.6%) also showed strong reductions.

• 📈 Some districts experienced increases, including Tasman (+6.3%), Waitematā (+2.5%), and Northland (+2.2%).

Overall, the data points to a gradual nationwide decline, though regional variations remain clear.

 

Area	2023/12-2024/11	2024/12-2025/11	Variation %
Auckland City	47,033	40,080	-14.8
Bay Of Plenty	32,151	31,729	-1.3
Canterbury	47,296	45,183	-4.5
Central	27,150	27,642	1.8
Counties/Manukau	55,246	50,067	-9.4
Eastern	20,377	18,218	-10.6
Northland	14,196	14,515	2.2
Southern	14,265	14,451	1.3
Tasman	8,721	9,269	6.3
Waikato	39,125	36,389	-7.0
Waitemata	37,783	38,730	2.5
Wellington	37,601	36,498	-2.9
Total	380,944	362,771	-4.8

 

3. Violent Crime Trends

In this section on Violent Crime, we have included Assault, Sexual Offences, and Acts that Harm or Endanger Persons, as categorised by New Zealand Police data. Unfortunately, we observed an overall increase in every region across the country

The data reveals a concerning and consistent upward trend in violent crime across New Zealand. Key insights include:

• Universal Increase: Unlike the "Overall Crime" and "Burglary" categories—which showed decreases in several major cities—this specific category of violent crime has seen a significant double-digit increase in every single region across the country.

• National Average: The total number of cases rose from 701,406 to 788,967, representing a national increase of 12.5% year-over-year.

• Regional Hotspots: Waitemata recorded the highest surge in the country at 15.3%, followed closely by Tasman (13.1%) and Canterbury (13.0%).

• Metropolitan Impact: Even regions like Auckland City and Counties/Manukau, which saw overall crime drop, experienced sharp rises in violent offences of 12.0% and 12.6% respectively.

• Volume: Counties/Manukau remains the region with the highest volume of these offences, surpassing 116,000 cases in the 2024/25 period.

 

Assault, Sexual Offences, Harm or Endanger Persons

Analysis: Every region in New Zealand recorded an increase in this category, with a national average rise of 12.5%.

 

 

4. Burglary Trends by Area

Using police data from Dec 2023 – Nov 2024 and Dec 2024 – Nov 2025, we analysed burglary-related offences across New Zealand districts.

 

Key Insights:

• 🔵 Major cities are seeing strong declines in burglary, with Auckland (-20.9%), Eastern (-22.3%), and Counties/Manukau (-6.6%) showing significant reductions.

• 🟢 Exceptions exist: Wellington shows a slight increase (+0.4%), while some smaller regional districts like Northland (+9.3%) and Tasman (+8.4%) are experiencing rising burglary rates.

• 📉 Overall trend: Despite a nationwide decrease of 4.4%, burglary patterns are not uniform; higher-density urban areas show notable improvements, whereas smaller or less-policed regions have mixed trends.

The data suggests that visible, effective security measures are making a difference, particularly in large cities. Physical deterrents such as window bars and reinforced doors likely contribute to the strong declines seen in Auckland and surrounding urban hubs.

At the same time, rising burglary in certain smaller districts reminds us that crime prevention must be regionally targeted, and property owners should remain vigilant regardless of national or city-level trends.

 

 

 

5. Long-Term Crime Trends (2014–2025): A Decade of Crime in New Zealand

While short-term trends are improving, the long-term picture tells a different story.

 

From 2014 to 2023, total recorded crime increased significantly, peaking at 390,108 cases in 2023. Although crime levels declined in 2024 and again in 2025 (provisionally 329,492 cases), they remain well above 2014 levels.

This helps explain why many New Zealanders feel crime has become more common—and more violent—over recent years, even as the latest data suggests early signs of stabilisation.

 

2014-2025 Crime Trend Comparison

*2025 data is provisional. December figures were not available at the time of analysis.

 

6. What These Trends Mean for  2026 and Why Prevention Still Matters

Although 2025 shows a slow but steady decrease in crime, particularly in Auckland, prevention remains essential. 

In short:

• Auckland’s Road to Recovery: As New Zealand’s largest metropolitan hub, the Auckland regions continue to record the highest volume of offences nationally. However, the trend is moving in a positive direction, with both overall crime and burglary-related offences seeing a notable downward trajectory.

• Regional Disparities: The data highlights that crime pressure is not evenly distributed. While major cities show improvement, several smaller districts are experiencing slow but steady increases, suggesting that resources and security focus may need to shift toward regional New Zealand.

• The Critical Concern – Violent Crime: Unlike other categories, Violent Crime (including Assault and Sexual Offences) remains on a persistent rise. With double-digit increases recorded in every region, this remains the most significant and concerning trend in the current NZ Police data.
  

Security solutions such as window bars for window protection, Security gates (pedestrian gates) for door reinforcement and many other physical security measures do more than physically block access. They also act as highly visible deterrents, discouraging potential offenders before a crime occurs.

If current trends continue, 2026 may see further incremental improvement. However, crime patterns can change quickly due to economic, social, and enforcement factors.

Investing in visible, robust security solutions remains one of the most effective ways to protect homes and businesses—regardless of short-term crime statistics.

We will continue monitoring police data closely and release a follow-up analysis once full 2025 data is confirmed. Until then, stay safe!